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we're asking for solutions to the fiscal cliff. joining me now is alan greenspan, former federal reserve chairman and now with greenspan associates. nice to have you back on the program. >> nice to be here. >> thanks so much for joining us. you have said there's no painless solution to the fiscal cliff here. what do you think the best possible outcome could be? >> the best possible outcome as far as i can see is to take something like simpso/bowles that came out originally and get the issue resolved. i've never seen anything like this. >> you've been around a long time and seen lots of parties fight. >> they always come to go. the difference now is that -- not that there are more differences than unusual. if you go back, there's a lot of data that suggests this is not unusual. what is unusual is the republicans don't speak to the democrats and vice versa? back then, i mean, not that far. >> they went to dipper and went to lunch and discussed issues. >> when i was in the white house, tip o'neill and jerry ford used to be at each oth
we're asking for solutions to the fiscal cliff. joining me now is alan greenspan, former federal reserve chairman and now with greenspan associates. nice to have you back on the program. >> nice to be here. >> thanks so much for joining us. you have said there's no painless solution to the fiscal cliff here. what do you think the best possible outcome could be? >> the best possible outcome as far as i can see is to take something like simpso/bowles that came out originally and...
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Dec 11, 2012
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we do think there will be a fiscal cliff deal before year end. i think that could take the s&p to 1500 by year end or early january. but for what the market does from 1500 over the course of next year, i think really depends on the details of the fiscal cliff deal. we're looking to see just how much fiscal drag there will be in 2013 overall from both spending cuts and tax hikes. and also we want to see just the amount of tax hikes. i hope that those tax hikes are not greater than 1% of gdp. >> how much fed stimulus does the market need to hit some of the targets that you're thinking about it might be able to do? >> the 1500 that is our 12-month target would take the fiscal stimulus, take the monetary stimulus that basically folks are talking about, just a fed balance sheet getting above $3 trillion. i don't think necessarily 4 trillion. i think the key to get the s&p well above 1500 is looking at the fiscal policy, the tax hikes in particular, and probably the best litmus test is the dividend tax rate. expectations for the dividend tax rate, a lo
we do think there will be a fiscal cliff deal before year end. i think that could take the s&p to 1500 by year end or early january. but for what the market does from 1500 over the course of next year, i think really depends on the details of the fiscal cliff deal. we're looking to see just how much fiscal drag there will be in 2013 overall from both spending cuts and tax hikes. and also we want to see just the amount of tax hikes. i hope that those tax hikes are not greater than 1% of gdp....
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Dec 12, 2012
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economy can go right over the fiscal cliff. and the $600 billion question. will the fed, does the fed have the fiscal fire power to offset tax hikes and spending cuts and keep the economy alive? it is a good question. we do expect the fed to keep interest rates near zero at least near 2015 and also continue to buy agency backed at the pace of $4 billion per month. a big change is the end of so-called operation twist and the potential start of what some are calling qe4. there are some big questions. do we expect some answers in about 5 minutes? let's hope. but we may not have to wait. we've got our own fed insider steve liesman here. he is in washington, where he himself scaled the georgian columns of the fed building. he is here with a preview. steve, what can we expect from the final fed decision of 2012? >> as you know, brian, i run a spdr line from the monument. that's how we get up here. this is really a historic day, and i think the market really hasn't focused on it. the fed's balance sheet is really about to explode. you just gave the numbers. i want
economy can go right over the fiscal cliff. and the $600 billion question. will the fed, does the fed have the fiscal fire power to offset tax hikes and spending cuts and keep the economy alive? it is a good question. we do expect the fed to keep interest rates near zero at least near 2015 and also continue to buy agency backed at the pace of $4 billion per month. a big change is the end of so-called operation twist and the potential start of what some are calling qe4. there are some big...
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Dec 10, 2012
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the reason, well, the fiscal cliff. the current rate is 35%. only those estates worth 5 million or more have to file. if we go off the cliff the rate shoots up to 55%. anyone worth an estate worth $1 million or more has it file. that will catch tens of thousands of tax payers in the net of the estate tax. republicans want it abolished or current rates to be made permanent. obama wants 45% rate and 3.5 million cut off. that mid way between today's rates and old rate. the problem is that even some democrats are siding with republicans saying they want it keep current rates. all the sides here tyler remain very far apart. wealthy families need 20 rewrite their wills and charity plans. for the country, there are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake. under old rates, they raise $532 billion by 2021. obama plan raised around $270 billion, about half. gop raises about $161 billion. the fight over taxing the rich, especially in the estate tax, is far from over. back to you, tyler. >> not the first time the estate tax has come up in these kinds of n
the reason, well, the fiscal cliff. the current rate is 35%. only those estates worth 5 million or more have to file. if we go off the cliff the rate shoots up to 55%. anyone worth an estate worth $1 million or more has it file. that will catch tens of thousands of tax payers in the net of the estate tax. republicans want it abolished or current rates to be made permanent. obama wants 45% rate and 3.5 million cut off. that mid way between today's rates and old rate. the problem is that even...
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Dec 5, 2012
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but how about the fiscal cliff? we're going to show you the real impact on americans' wallets and some stats to make you go -- hmm. apple slammed but the dow doesn't care. the indexes are higher as some break-away republicans are giving investors hope that a deal will get done. but will apple win the online music battle? >>> why pandora is being boxed out today. >>>ed unintended consequences of all these one-time dividends. mandy's off today so let's welcome in courtney reagan. >> thank you very much, brian. >>> blue chips are ruling the roost on wall street today. the dow bouncing back from morning loss to post triple digit gains. travelers, caterpillar and chevron accounting for a big chunk of that advance. >>> apple having its worst day in four months. pushing the nasdaq into negative territory. >>> bob, apple is lower than 4% -- we're going to toss it back to brian. >> courtney, hold your horses. >>> but first we've got to get a big development on the fiscal cliff negotiations. at this point we are still just a
but how about the fiscal cliff? we're going to show you the real impact on americans' wallets and some stats to make you go -- hmm. apple slammed but the dow doesn't care. the indexes are higher as some break-away republicans are giving investors hope that a deal will get done. but will apple win the online music battle? >>> why pandora is being boxed out today. >>>ed unintended consequences of all these one-time dividends. mandy's off today so let's welcome in courtney...
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Dec 5, 2012
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we're talking about fiscal cliff, and we're forgetting about the weak economy in the uk. there are two things that i'm watching. i'm looking at central banks around the world constituent adding physical gold to their coffers to the opportunity of 400 tons. and a new investor class, the etp, investors holding 2600 tons of gold and the fourth largest holder. so when i start watching, if we start reducing those levels, maybe the top is in. by the way, the dollar is closer to the lows than it is to the highs, so keep an eye on the dollar as well. >> okay. it sounds like it's too early to call in your view. let's look at what goldman is cowling for. they're cutting their 3, 6 and 12-month targets. do you agree with those levels where you see it going long term and short term? >> jackie, you know, the numbers we have to watch right now, i don't know if i necessarily agree with those numbers. but the numbers we're looking at right now are the numbers we have covered on this show a few times. it's 1675 to 1672. that's the big support there. if we get through that, we'll see 1600,
we're talking about fiscal cliff, and we're forgetting about the weak economy in the uk. there are two things that i'm watching. i'm looking at central banks around the world constituent adding physical gold to their coffers to the opportunity of 400 tons. and a new investor class, the etp, investors holding 2600 tons of gold and the fourth largest holder. so when i start watching, if we start reducing those levels, maybe the top is in. by the way, the dollar is closer to the lows than it is to...
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Dec 11, 2012
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., the fiscal cliff story. the challenge is, changes to tax law that make it more expensive to own a home. >> if the mortgage interest rate deduction were eliminated, what would happen to this forecast up 950? >> absolutely catastrophic. >> so, here's very bullish. 950 in terms of housing starts added next year, an increase of 22%. if the mortgage deduction is eliminated, we could be looking at flat. coming out today in a report, saying that the fiscal cliff could reverse u.s. home price improvements. so, that sees like a lot of risk built into the sector here. >> yeah, if you look at the sector, evaluation wise -- hd and lowe's price to earnings ratio are above where they were during the peak of the housing bubble. that's a lot of hammers that you have to sell here. i'm short. that's the way to play it. >> there's a rise which has just within phenomenal and then there's the actual housing market which has had a nice bump but nowhere near what we've seen in the equities, so, i think we could see both, them come
., the fiscal cliff story. the challenge is, changes to tax law that make it more expensive to own a home. >> if the mortgage interest rate deduction were eliminated, what would happen to this forecast up 950? >> absolutely catastrophic. >> so, here's very bullish. 950 in terms of housing starts added next year, an increase of 22%. if the mortgage deduction is eliminated, we could be looking at flat. coming out today in a report, saying that the fiscal cliff could reverse u.s....
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Dec 12, 2012
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so where specifically are they putting all that money to work in light of fiscal cliff? take a listen to what bla blackrock's robert casid 0 to me. he manages the firm's $3.7 trillion in assets. >> does this mean we good over the fiscal cliff. >> it is a very high likelihood it does or 11:59 on december 31st with a lot of hoopla. but tax rate are going to go up. there is a going to be a conclusion to this. even if it waits until the last minute. even if it is in january, what it is going to mean is slow growth. it may mean that we lose the entire first quarter because everybody is still worrying and talking about the issue. and here we go, clients again, investing in a time when they need to be invested. >> he also thinks if we go over the cliff it might trig ear recession. what about the fed? as you know, it announced those big moves today. tying any move in rates to the unemployment rate. are we in a bond double? we will hear from blackrock's chief investment officers of fundamentals fixed income reader told me later. >> ty, over to you. >> thank you very much. to the
so where specifically are they putting all that money to work in light of fiscal cliff? take a listen to what bla blackrock's robert casid 0 to me. he manages the firm's $3.7 trillion in assets. >> does this mean we good over the fiscal cliff. >> it is a very high likelihood it does or 11:59 on december 31st with a lot of hoopla. but tax rate are going to go up. there is a going to be a conclusion to this. even if it waits until the last minute. even if it is in january, what it is...
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Dec 12, 2012
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this meeting and the fiscal cliff. so, we're looking at, you know, the next week and a half where we have a congressional, where congress is going to leave, a lot of them say they're staying if they have a deal or not. the options market was not too focused on this meeting. look at the futures curve to see that. one of the things i'll tell you right now, with december expiration, which is next friday which coincides when congress is supposed to lead, the s&p at the money straddle, if you bought that, only about 1.5%, okay? that's not pricing a whole heck of a lot. so, the market's telling you that people aren't that worried that we won't get a deal by the time congress leaves for the holidays. >> in terms to the push to riskier assets, you can believe it's the four-year anniversary of the felt's fund race basically being zero. since then, what have the markets done? nothing but go higher. the nasdaq is up 90% of that anniversary. the s&p 500 is up 57% and the dow is up 49%. hasn't this worked? >> it certainly has worke
this meeting and the fiscal cliff. so, we're looking at, you know, the next week and a half where we have a congressional, where congress is going to leave, a lot of them say they're staying if they have a deal or not. the options market was not too focused on this meeting. look at the futures curve to see that. one of the things i'll tell you right now, with december expiration, which is next friday which coincides when congress is supposed to lead, the s&p at the money straddle, if you...
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why the fiscal cliff has him mining, panning and digging harder than ever. todd hoffman, "gold rush." jim, can you grow that beard? >> i love that show. i can grow the hair that he has. >> let's do it. we're back after this. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪ come pre-filled with problems. enough is enough. introducing the chase liquid reloadable card. with chase liquid, there's no waiting and no fee to activate you can load cash and checks at any chase depositfriendly atm and there are no withdrawal fees at over 17,500 chase atms all for one flat fee of $4.95 per month. get rid of prepaid problems. get chase liquid. >>> why can't you be a made in america company? >> you
why the fiscal cliff has him mining, panning and digging harder than ever. todd hoffman, "gold rush." jim, can you grow that beard? >> i love that show. i can grow the hair that he has. >> let's do it. we're back after this. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when...
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sandy, fiscal cliff. but as a result, the ones that fall and come down a lot, those are the ones you pick at. >> and pope benedict is launching a new application. pope to you on facebook. the application lets you listen to his words, see his pictures and receive messages of congratulations through virtual post cards. >>> all right, all right, sema? >> hewlitt packard jumping nearly 4%. carl may be interested in the company. hp facing serious issues and the stock faulling 44%. own an fast money at 5:00, we want to know if you think they can rise from the dead. >> thank so much. >>> final trades up next when we come back on "halftime." s. i d'. i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes inve
sandy, fiscal cliff. but as a result, the ones that fall and come down a lot, those are the ones you pick at. >> and pope benedict is launching a new application. pope to you on facebook. the application lets you listen to his words, see his pictures and receive messages of congratulations through virtual post cards. >>> all right, all right, sema? >> hewlitt packard jumping nearly 4%. carl may be interested in the company. hp facing serious issues and the stock faulling...
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could be a fiscal cliff. the gulf is hotter than it's ever been even a few years ago it was ice cold. >> big story in the journal about exploration in this country. production 15-year high. brand new chapter here. look at the bottom of your screen. citigroup is cutting 11,000 jobs. we want to get to kayla tausche with more on that. >> we have a release that just hit the wire in citigroup where those jobs are coming from and a charge that the company plans to take in the fourth quarter because of these job cuts even though it expects them to generate $900 million in cost savings next year. interestingly this is the first move toward really slimming down citi by the new ceo. he has a quote in here saying these actions are logical next steps in citi's transformation and says they're committed to strategy that continues to leverage in the global banking market. if you go through the list of where these jobs are actually coming from, institutional clients group which is investment banking a quarter of the job cuts
could be a fiscal cliff. the gulf is hotter than it's ever been even a few years ago it was ice cold. >> big story in the journal about exploration in this country. production 15-year high. brand new chapter here. look at the bottom of your screen. citigroup is cutting 11,000 jobs. we want to get to kayla tausche with more on that. >> we have a release that just hit the wire in citigroup where those jobs are coming from and a charge that the company plans to take in the fourth...
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optimism on the fiscal cliff being resolved. i'll tell you this, somebody's very wrong about 2013, because there's two camps that are quite at odds with each other right now. the first one i've been telling you about, it's been quat bearish on this. that the fiscal cliff will be a headwind for stocks. that this represents the start of a new american austerity, that higher taxes, lower spending is not bullish for the stock market in 2013. this group has been arguing, i've been saying this for two weeks, what this group wants, you buy into the fiscal cliff and then sell immediately after for some unspecified period. on the other side, and i think the majority is moderately bullish on 2013, most are clearing up policy issues in washington and europe, will help the stock market overall. jpmorgan, thomas lee, the s&p 500 he thinks is going to be up 13% in 2013. he set a price target of 1580 or so. that would be the old historic high. >> carl has the press release from berkshire hathaway now. >> december 12th, purchased 9,200 of the c
optimism on the fiscal cliff being resolved. i'll tell you this, somebody's very wrong about 2013, because there's two camps that are quite at odds with each other right now. the first one i've been telling you about, it's been quat bearish on this. that the fiscal cliff will be a headwind for stocks. that this represents the start of a new american austerity, that higher taxes, lower spending is not bullish for the stock market in 2013. this group has been arguing, i've been saying this for...
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the winner, the fiscal cliff, 35%. what are people saying about the fiscal cliff? we have people write in, and i believe that's what we'll look at next. we'll look at the probability of a u.s. recession. that has come up. in part because of the fiscal cliff concerns. it was 19% back in march. a high of 36%. so we're halfway between the low and the high pretty much. this is a 13-month high for the probability of recession. now we want to show you what people are saying about the fiscal cliff, allowing the economy to go over the cliff would be extremely reckless, says donnelly. they're going out to try to help the unemployment rate. wall street doesn't believe it's going to happen. they do believe it will help lower mortgage rates and the unemployment rate and not a lot of help expected for the stock market. melissa? >> steve, thanks for that. that's interesting stuff there. >> nothing like getting your blood pressure up. liesman testing you live on tv. >> what do you think? wrong, wrong. brought back bad memories, huh, carl? 2013 housing market outlook this morning,
the winner, the fiscal cliff, 35%. what are people saying about the fiscal cliff? we have people write in, and i believe that's what we'll look at next. we'll look at the probability of a u.s. recession. that has come up. in part because of the fiscal cliff concerns. it was 19% back in march. a high of 36%. so we're halfway between the low and the high pretty much. this is a 13-month high for the probability of recession. now we want to show you what people are saying about the fiscal cliff,...
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Dec 6, 2012
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but everybody's worried about retail and fiscal cliff, carl and fiscal cliff was mentioned in the release. it's become something carl that we are expecting in every release that we see. >> we do have a couple of seconds to point out that last night in cable fax awards, two nights ago, you were named to the hall of fame. >> yes, thank you very much. kind of proud, i dedicated by admission to mark haines who put me on tv. when david and joe would do "squawk box," he put me on tv. and mark was inducted into the hall of fame last year, because he said there's room for like guys that were bald and fat. right then i was trading at 2.15. now it's a point lower. >> no free passes. >> well deserved, congratulationings from all of us. you're going to stick arounder for lululemon. >> speaking of which, coming up, the ceo of lululemon will talk to us about the holiday season. and apple, a slide back into u.s. territory. [ male announcer ] when a major hospital wanted to provide better employee benefits while balancing the company's bottom line, their very first word was... [ to the tune of "lullaby a
but everybody's worried about retail and fiscal cliff, carl and fiscal cliff was mentioned in the release. it's become something carl that we are expecting in every release that we see. >> we do have a couple of seconds to point out that last night in cable fax awards, two nights ago, you were named to the hall of fame. >> yes, thank you very much. kind of proud, i dedicated by admission to mark haines who put me on tv. when david and joe would do "squawk box," he put me...